tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-344997002024-02-20T18:42:35.815-08:00Second Thoughtsand Other ConsiderationsWonderwoodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13118126631519254865noreply@blogger.comBlogger73125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34499700.post-50050522724332878142012-01-03T19:03:00.000-08:002012-01-03T19:17:51.693-08:00FictionSo, I'll take a break from my standard semi-annual gloom and doom post, and put some fiction up here for any lost souls who stumble across this blog. This is the first chapter of a new story I've been working on for a little while. Constructive criticism is welcome.<br /><br />Chapter 1<br /><br /><br />Chuck Truett watched from behind dark sunglasses as people streamed in and out of the bank. He sat at a table on the patio of a coffee shop across the street, holding the sports page of the local daily. He folded the paper to an article on the upcoming college football season and slowly sipped his coffee as he alternated reading, scanning traffic, and eyeing the bank.<br /><br />The sun crashed down without mercy, shattering off cars and pavement. A slight breeze moved the heat around. Even in the shade of the table’s umbrella, he felt like he might spontaneously combust.<br /><br />Two tan, leggy coeds came out of the coffee shop and took the table next to him. One of them smiled at Chuck. He smiled back. The girls immediately pulled out their cell phones and began tapping away at the keys.<br /><br />He sipped coffee and looked west, scanning Beach Boulevard. Moderate traffic flowing in both directions, slightly heavier going east toward the beach. He looked south down San Pablo. Light traffic going south, somewhat heavier coming north. Rush hour had not yet begun in earnest, but it was getting warmed up.<br /><br />There’s a cop, coming north on San Pablo. Chuck glanced at his watch. Three twenty-two. He checked the notepad sitting on the table in front of him, frowned, and made a notation. In five afternoons over the last two weeks, he’d detected no pattern to the passing of the patrol cars at this intersection, other than they did so with some regularity.<br /><br />A sardonic grin played briefly on his face. Casing a bank. Never in all his life, not even as recently as a month ago, would he have imagined he’d be casing a bank. But desperate times call for desperate measures and all that.<br /><br />But would he have the balls to actually go through with it? He wondered. Right now, he felt good, working it over in his mind, playing it out. In his mind, he pulled it off without a hitch. The teller was always pretty, and she gazed in awe as she put all the cash in the bank zipper bag and handed it back to him. He winked at her before he turned to stroll calmly out of the bank, several thousand dollars richer than he’d walked in.<br /><br />He knew reality would be different. <br /><br />For starters, he would need a disguise. He’d been doing some research on the internet and had some good ideas about how he might disguise himself. Tomorrow he would drive down to the outlet mall in St. Augustine to purchase make-up at the beauty supply store there. He would pay cash. He was trying to think ahead and anticipate how the police might investigate, and shopping out of town and paying cash seemed like common sense precautions.<br /><br />He had what he thought was a stroke of genius with the disguise. He would wear a wig, of course, and he was going to give himself a couple of facial scars – nothing major, but something for the teller to remember. But the icing on the cake would be some temporary prison tattoos on his hands. He’d just had the idea this morning, and later he would do some research on the internet for prison gang symbols. This, he thought, would surely throw the investigation off track.<br /><br />Thinking like a criminal was not in Chuck’s nature. Casing a bank, conjuring a disguise, plotting the robbery and the getaway, it all seemed surreal to him. <br /><br />He’d always been a hard worker, always tried to do the right thing. He had never imagined himself as a criminal. Well, that is, if you don’t count the many times he’d visualized beating the shit out of the lawyers and bankers he’d encountered in the last few years.<br /><br />No, he’d pretty much always been on the right side of the law. And he’d done well: built a business, made a good living, employed twenty to thirty people, had a nice family and a nice home. But the universe had thrown him some curves, and all of that was gone now. He had almost nothing left.<br /><br />He’d gone through a soul-searching phase, and he came to terms with his decision. He determined that he was robbing the thieves, so there was no moral issue beyond the decision to break the law, and the law didn’t seem to count for much these days.<br /><br />He watched the bank until four o’clock. He noted two more patrol cars, one at 3:38 and another at 3:52. Random, no pattern. He finished his coffee, dropped the cup in the receptacle, got in his truck and drove home.<br /><br />The house felt empty, as it always did now. Memories echoed in the silence. Precious memories, but painful, like a diamond wrapped in barbed-wire.<br /><br />He’d tried to sell the house, but the market was so bad that the bank wouldn’t even approve a short sale for what the house would bring. He hadn’t made a mortgage payment in eight months, and had no plans to make another. Fuck the bank, let them come and take the house, it would be a blessing. He knew they wouldn’t do it any time soon, though, since the mortgage was underwater. If there was equity in the home, they’d foreclose in a heartbeat. The bad decision to build the house at the wrong time was actually paying off, in an unexpected way.<br /><br />He dropped two ice cubes in a tumbler and drowned them with Jack Daniels. Bandit, his yellow Lab, was hopping around in a circle toward the door that led to the back deck and yard. He opened the door and Bandit led the way outside.<br /><br />He watched the dog sniff around the yard as he considered his circumstances. There was still some money in the bank. He could live and eat for a few months yet. A few thousand more from robbing the bank would stretch it out a little further. Beyond that, he didn’t know, but he didn’t worry much about it. He’d become accustomed to living with uncertainty. It was just part of the game now. It was the “new normal”. That, and there were plenty of banks to rob.<br /><br />An osprey called out from a tree top in the small patch of forest beyond the fence that surrounded the back yard. Probably scoping the pond back there. The pond was surrounded by eight other lots, six of which were undeveloped. The lots were large, by today’s standards, each one consisting of three plush acres. Wildlife still inhabited the neighborhood, which was adjacent to a large tract of undeveloped land. Deer, foxes, osprey, red-tailed hawks all made their homes in the forest. <br /><br />Chuck liked to watch the osprey and the hawks hunt their prey. He’d seen the osprey take some nice bass from the pond, and he’d seen the hawks streak down and pick rabbits and squirrels off the ground. Somehow the raw, unforgiving nature of the food-chain seemed less predatory than the world in which he lived.<br /><br />His cell phone vibrated in the holster on his hip. He checked the ID. It was Sam, his brother.<br /><br />“Hey,” Chuck said.<br /><br />“You busy?” Sam asked.<br /><br />“I was right in the middle of solving the world’s problems, but I can talk.”<br /><br />Sam laughed. “Right. You finish that book?”<br /><br />“Yeah, finished it this morning. It’s interesting, like you said. And very disturbing.”<br /><br />Sam had mailed Chuck his latest recommended reading, Crossing the Rubicon, by Michael Ruppert. He told Chuck to start with an open mind. Three years ago, Chuck would have laughed at the premise, that 9/11 had been an inside job, and would have said it was ludicrous. But over the last couple of years, with the combination of his own experiences, observations, and the books that Sam had insisted he read, his view of the world had changed. Ruppert’s book had only added to the evidence that there was a powerful, evil undercurrent that churned below the surface of the political and financial systems of the world, and the U.S. in particular. Greed and lust for power had corrupted the government and destroyed the foundation of the country. Chuck’s faith in the government of the United States had been shattered, and his belief in the ultimate good of the human spirit had been shaken.<br /><br />“Disturbing, for sure,” Sam said. “Better to know the truth, though. Forewarned is forearmed.”<br /><br />“So you tell me.”<br /><br />“When are you coming up for a visit?”<br /><br />“I’m not sure. Maybe in a couple of weeks.”<br /><br />“That’s what you’ve been saying for six months, Chuck. Come on up, the kids would love to see you, and so would Gina. Not to mention, you and I haven’t had the chance to hang out much the last few years. And it’s important to me, because we need to have a serious conversation about some things, and I don’t want to do it over the phone. We need a couple of days for this.”<br /><br />“A serious conversation about what?”<br /><br />“About a lot of things, man,” Sam said. “We just need to talk about some life things. I have some ideas I want to bounce off you, get your feedback.”<br /><br />“Alright, I guess I can take some time off,” Chuck said, as if free time was a strain these days. “I’ll take a look at what I’ve got going and I’ll block off a good long weekend. Hell, maybe even a whole week.”<br /><br />“That’s what I like to hear,” Sam said. “Seriously, this is important to me, Chuck. I want you to give me a date and commit to it, so look at your calendar and call me back tomorrow.”<br /><br />“What’s the deal? I mean, why the mystery?”<br /><br />“Just humor me, okay? It’s important. Isn’t that good enough?”<br /><br />Chuck nodded, staring into the forest. “Yeah, man. That’s good enough.”Wonderwoodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13118126631519254865noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34499700.post-7953084317108563342011-07-31T18:30:00.001-07:002011-07-31T18:30:59.329-07:00What Did It Feel Like?I wonder what it felt like back in 1930, after the stock market crashed and unemployment was rising and the economy was tanking. The US was in the midst of the Great Depression, and with the luxury of hindsight we can look at the charts and the numbers and see the progression, the spiral downward. But what did it feel like to the people living it, at the time it was happening?<br /><br />Did they know that they were living through a period that would be talked about for decades, and perhaps centuries? The communication technology that we have today didn’t exist then, but newspapers and radio existed, and word of mouth has historically spread the news. So were people talking about the Depression? Was it dinner table conversation?<br /><br />I’m amazed by how the majority of the US population has largely ignored the financial crisis that began to erupt in 2008 and continues today in an even more unstable system. It’s a fading memory in the collective national consciousness.<br /><br />Out of five close friends that I interact and communicate with on a regular basis, only one of them is paying attention to anything beyond the headlines in the news. He understands, as I do, that the future of our way of life, and that of the world, hangs in the balance as we speak.<br /><br />The negotiations that are public, like the debt ceiling debate/farce/spectacle, but more importantly, the negotiations going on behind closed doors, are beyond the control of most of us, individually. We are not in a position to affect the outcome of these negotiations, and our future, on a macro-level, is beyond our control. And from all appearances, the decision-makers themselves have lost control.<br /><br />It seems easy to say, “Let’s throw these guys out and put some people in office that will act like adults and get the ship turned around”. But in order to do this, we need an honest political system; we need an honest way of choosing honest men and women. Therein lies the problem. Our system is corrupt, and a corrupt political system will produce corrupt politicians. We can thank the US Supreme Court for legalizing the purchase of our politicians., but that’s a story for another day.<br /><br />So this is how I feel at this historical moment in time. Frustrated. Angry. Helpless, with regard to fixing the roots of the problem: the corrupt political and banking systems. <br /><br />In all honesty, I’m kind of shocked that more people don’t see what’s going on. Why isn’t the current state of our nation the primary topic of discussion around the watercooler and at dinner tables? Why aren’t people absolutely outraged at what the sell-outs we call politicians are allowing the banks to do to us? The politicians are in fact facilitating the rape of our country; where is the outrage that none of the criminals have gone to jail?<br /><br />For all of our apathy in the face of an imminent crisis, I think the tables might finally be starting to turn. With the debt debate/farce/scam being played out on TV and the papers and the internet, more and more people are waking up to the fact that the government and the financial institutions are in this thing together, each as guilty as the other. The mainstream media is doing a good job of keeping up the façade, but there is a small percentage of the people who search out the facts and tell their friends and family, and slowly, like a drunk coming of a four day bender, people are opening their eyes and not liking what they see.<br /><br />I think it is only a matter of time before we reach a tipping point, but what that time frame is, I really can’t say. It will most likely be a rude awakening, long after the point of no return, as I believe we’re there already.<br /><br />As we spiral downward, I feel a very primal kind of fear. It’s not a surface-type fear, more of a general sense of uneasiness and uncertainty. <br /><br />Angry. Frustrated. Uneasy. A macro-level helplessness. That’s what 2011 has come to feel like for me. I wonder if this is what it felt like in 1930?Wonderwoodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13118126631519254865noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34499700.post-2925831290354634792011-04-20T20:00:00.000-07:002011-04-20T20:16:57.189-07:00InsanityThe world is upside down.<br /><br /><em>Fucking craaazyyyy.</em><br /><br />The Middle East is on fire. <em>Revolution, bitchez.</em><br /><br />Japan: Earthquake; Tsunami; Nuclear meltdown. Death. Destruction. Suffering. <em>Craaaazyyyy.</em><br /><br />Europe crumbling. Soveriegn bailouts only delay default. Old conflicts will rise anew. Europe will collapse on itself and then explode.<br /><br />The U.S. in terminal denial. Unsustainable debt; promises that cannot and will not be kept. Welfare state goes bankrupt. Middle class wiped out as they watch American Idol and text their votes. <em>Fucking crazy.</em> Their way of life stolen as they believe the lies their Uncle told them. Blind or foolish, it matters not.<br /><br /><em>Crazy shit.</em><br /><br />Mother Nature is pissed. Earthquakes by the dozen. Tornadoes by the hundreds. Fires burn Texas to the ground.<br /><br />Two week news cycle keeps the peace. Spin it. Inform the masses but don't scare them.<br /><br />The air is heavy. Storm clouds moving in. Stay low.Wonderwoodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13118126631519254865noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34499700.post-12863802895068375962011-01-02T06:58:00.000-08:002011-01-03T19:17:34.971-08:00Looking Back At America - ConclusionThis is Part VII, and the conclusion, of the Looking Back At America series, which presents the perspective of what today's America might look like to historians 100 years in the future. This series of articles is most easily understood by starting with the first installment.<br /><br /><br />The picture presented here was painted with broad strokes. In order to paint the big picture, it was necessary to give only superficial treatment to many of the underlying causes and conditions, and to leave out numerous other contributing factors.<br /><br />The Federal Reserve System is a subject on which hundreds of volumes have been written, and it is certainly worthy of in-depth scrutiny, but for the purpose of this account, suffice it to say that the Fed exists to serve the banks. This fact has been kept from the general population by cloaking the financial systems in mystery, using esoteric terms that serve to confuse rather than enlighten. By design, We the People are not supposed to understand the banking system and the nature of money. As Henry Ford was quoted as saying, “It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.”<br /><br />Very little attention was given to the deficit spending by the government, or so-called stimulus spending, facilitated by the Fed and the Treasury. This policy attempts to fix a debt problem by piling more debt upon it. Mathmatically, it cannot succeed. In 2010, the deficit was $1.7 <em>trillion</em> dollars, more than 12% of GDP, and growing. This stimulus spending is hiding the fact that the real economy is contracting by almost 10%, with no relief in sight.<br /><br />The collapse of the housing market and the magnitude of the foreclosure crisis was discussed, but this part of the story is worthy of the volumes being written about it now.<br /><br />The flight of manufacturing from the U.S. to other countries deserves more attention than it was given here, and the pathetic condition of the American public education system was not even mentioned, though both of these factors are greatly responsible for the situation in America today.<br /><br />The political system in the United States is broken. The very qualities required for the average politician to organize and fund an election campaign are the exact opposite qualities that are required for an honest political system. Politicians of all stripes are bought and paid for during the campaigns, and once elected, do not represent the people, they represent the corporations and special interests that made the biggest monetary contributions to their campaign. <br /><br />The two party system is a scam that is perfectly suited to the interests of the financial cartels. They can purchase both Democrats and Republicans for virtually the same price, and this system keeps the American population focused on wedge issues like abortion and gay marriage, while the critical issues facing the nation are kept hidden from view.<br /><br />The complex federal tax code serves to drive American businesses overseas, which accelerates the deterioration of employment conditions in the U.S. The tax code also creates pockets of special interests that further corrupt the integrity of the political system.<br /><br />The mainstream media is complicit in the deception. Many of the mainstream news outlets serve as the public relations channel for the collusion between the federal government and the banking cartels, keeping the American people distracted and therefore marginalized.<br /><br />At this critical point, the remaining options are not attractive, but the opportunity still exists to steer away from the cliff and avoid catastrophe. This would require an awakening of the population and a demand for honesty and integrity in the financial system. This would be painful, as many people and institutions would be bankrupted, but it would allow the system to purge the bad debt, cleanse the economy of inefficiencies, and provide a foundation for recovery. But if the difficult decisions continue to be avoided, the outcome will be determined by the markets, which cannot be deceived forever. This would be The Great Collapse. If that happens, God help us all.Wonderwoodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13118126631519254865noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34499700.post-68785861769975981912011-01-02T06:51:00.000-08:002011-01-02T06:56:00.611-08:00Looking Back At America - Part VIThis is Part VI in the Looking Back At America series, which presents the perspective of what today's America might look like to historians 100 years in the future. This series of articles is most easily understood by starting with the first installment.<br /><br /><br />It was in 2010 that another problem manifested for the banks. This was dubbed “Foreclosuregate” by the media, and came to light as a result of a rash of lawsuits by people who felt they were being foreclosed upon illegally. These people alleged that the banks could not prove they had the right to foreclose, because they didn’t possess the required documentation; indeed, in some cases, multiple banks were trying to foreclose on the same property at the same time. The reason for this is because the banks, in their haste to originate loans, securitize them, and sell the securities, had ignored well-established property title laws regarding the transfer and notarization of “wet signature” documents when the loan moves from one “interested party” to another. In hundreds of thousands of instances, perhaps even millions, the notes had not been properly transferred, but yet the securities had been sold, and the issue of who actually owned the loan became very opaque indeed. <br /><br />In an attempt to cover up their fraud, the banks used law firms as “foreclosure mills” to process the foreclosure legal paperwork. The law firms employed people who did nothing but sign legal affidavits all day long. Some individuals signed as many as ten thousand affidavits a month. These people were given the title of “Vice President”, as the documents had to be signed by an officer of the bank, and it was later revealed that many of these people, employees of the law firms, were listed as officers for multiple banking institutions at the same time. The affidavits they signed attested to the fact that the original “wet signature” documents were unavailable but that the representations made in the foreclosure documents were true and accurate. The people who signed these thousands of documents did not in fact know that the representations were true and accurate because they had not even glanced at the contents of the documents. This amounted to perjury in a court of law. When this story broke in the news, these people were dubbed “Robo-signers”. <br /><br />When the “robo-signing” scandal erupted, the banks began to panic. The robo-signing of fraudulent affidavits was the banks’ attempt to cover up their fraudulent business model. In September, 2010, most of the major banks instituted a moratorium on foreclosures in the 27 states that require a court procedure to foreclose. This received some attention in the mainstream media, but it was spun as merely a pause to confirm that their processes were legal, though perhaps a bit sloppy. They took down the moratorium weeks later, to give the appearance that the problem no longer existed; it was all an over-reaction to sloppy paperwork.<br /><br />The problem for the banks was three-fold. First, the originations of the loans were fraudulent, because they made loans to people knowing, at the time of origination, that these borrowers would not be able to afford the loan once the teaser rate expired and the interest rate reset higher. They told the borrower that it was no problem, they could refinance in two years because their property would appreciate in value so much that they would have enough equity in two years to do so. This was illegal, as it constituted “fraud in the inducement”. And people signed up for that scam. By the hundreds of thousands. The mortgage industry had turned into one huge, unbridled Ponzi scheme. <br /><br />The banks gave loans to people who had no business taking out a mortgage, even people who were unemployed or marginally employed. These loans became known as “liars loans”, and it is estimated that by 2005, “liars’ loans” constituted 80% of the mortgages being written each year. The banks attempted to cover this fraud with the illegal affidavits, as they did not want the original paperwork to come to light and expose their fraudulent business model. In fact, in many cases the original documents had been intentionally destroyed.<br /><br />Second, the banks were packaging the liars’ loans into pools and dividing them up into securities that somehow received AAA ratings, and selling these loans to the institutional investors. The problem here was, the securities were actually worthless because the securitizers had not followed the legal procedures required to transfer the mortgage into the trusts from which the securities were sold. Essentially, the investors had been sold empty boxes. Because the banks had misrepresented the quality of the contents of the securities, they could now be on the hook for all of the securities they sold. The investors could put back trillions of dollars worth of securities on the banks. This would blow them out of the solar system.<br /><br />The third problem for the banks was the HELOC loans. If the first loan was in default, the HELOC was completely worthless. It is estimated that the three remaining major commercial banks (Citigroup, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo) had upwards of $350 billion in HELOCs outstanding. If only 30% of these loans were behind defaulted first mortgages, it would be enough to render these banks insolvent many times over.<br /><br />Still, the full realization of the insolvency of the institutional banks had not reached a critical mass of the population. The main stream news media colluded with the banks to downplay this story, spinning it as mistakes in documentation, mere technicalities, rather than a full-on cover-up of the disaster they had created. But the bank officials knew they had a problem. They knew they would need a lot of help from the media (from whom they purchased millions of dollars of advertising every year), from their political puppets in Congress, and especially from their key accomplice, the Federal Reserve Bank.<br /><br />Both Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke share the blame for the monetary policy that allowed the credit explosion to occur. But it was Bernanke who, when his policies failed to stimulate the economy, redoubled his efforts to pump liquidity into a system that suffered from insolvency. He was trying to pump up the credit markets by holding interest rates low, but this policy was doomed to fail because the credit markets needed to void the bad debt before they could absorb any new debt.<br /><br />He also instituted “Quantitative Easing”, a euphemism for the monetization of the massive debt held by the government after bailing out the banks. Still, We the People failed to see it for what it was. And in 2010, he implemented the second round of Quantitative Easing, or QE2, a policy that would pump another $600 billion into the system if it ran its full course. <br /><br />The problem here was, even as Bernanke tried to force credit into the system to get the economy moving again, there were no borrowers left to whom to lend. In order to lend, there must be a willing borrower, and all potential suspects were already soaked in debt. <br /><br />It was apparent to all but the most obtuse observers that The Fed’s policies ultimately served only to bail out the insolvent financial institutions at the expense of the American taxpayer. Although Bernanke’s policies led to a reflation of the stock market for almost two years, and let him claim that TPTB had saved the world from a total collapse of the global financial system, in reality it was only a temporary fix. <br /><br />The economy had not improved, though in the summer of 2010 the media did its best to convince the American public that a recovery was underway. A massive PR campaign – “Recovery Summer” – was launched by the spin doctors in the Federal government. By this time, however, a larger percentage of the population refused to accept this spin, and there was growing unrest among the natives. As 2010 drew to a close, there were many indicators of what was to come in 2011, but even so, very few people understood the gravity of the situation.<br /><br />Not only had the banks, on a historically unprecedented scale, perpetrated a Ponzi scheme on the American public through their fraudulent business model, but this reality was finally dawning on the public. And now the powerful unions were aligning against them, as well. As 2010 came to a close, this confrontation was quietly manifesting.<br /><br />Entering 2011, the American economy was contracting again. The government and the media continued to skew the unemployment numbers, but even with their manipulations unemployment was over 10%. The real numbers were far worse, with actual joblessness running at well over 20% of the working age population. Over 14% of the US population was on food stamps. Homelessness was on the rise and becoming a middle-class problem.<br /><br />Global disruptions were also manifesting. European nations were struggling with their own sovereign debt, and the European Union was showing signs of fracture. North Korea was rattling its saber. China was fragile, going through its own credit expansion, inflation, and housing bubble. Mexico had seen an explosion in violence as the drug cartels feuded with each other and the government. Al Qaeda and similar terrorist groups continued their random attacks on America and other western countries. The worldwide landscape was simmering, seething, and approaching a boil.<br /><br />And it was then, as a critical mass of Americans finally awoke to the hubris and rapacious greed of the men in power, and the nefarious nature of all their schemes, that the shit truly hit the fan…<br /><br /><br />Part VII concludes the series.Wonderwoodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13118126631519254865noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34499700.post-85936165761676639822011-01-02T06:37:00.000-08:002011-01-02T06:46:38.106-08:00Looking Back At America - Part VThis is Part V in the Looking Back At America series, which presents the perspective of what today's America might look like to historians 100 years in the future. This series of articles is most easily understood by starting with the first installment.<br /><br />The stock market topped in October of 2007 and began a downward decline into 2008. The U.S. economy slipped into recession as the construction industry stalled along with the housing market. Unemployment started rising and kept rising. People, ever so subtly, began to restrain themselves from borrowing more money.<br /><br />It was early in 2008 that the financial system began to get more widespread attention. The sub-prime mortgage market was collapsing, and with it the value of the securities the banks had sold to the pension funds. The collateral that investment banks used to float their transactions had lost value, and this created a solvency problem for the banks. Banks reacted by tightening lending standards, belatedly, and this served to further exacerbate the collapse of the housing market.<br /><br />By September of 2008, the financial system was in a full blown crisis, the likes of which had never been seen in human history. On September 18, 2008, an electronic run began on the banks, draining over $550 billion dollars from the money market accounts of the large financial institutions in less than two hours. The U.S. Treasury shut down the accounts and announced a $250,000 guarantee on these accounts, stopping the run. <br /><br />Hank Paulson, Treasury Secretary, told Congress that afternoon that if they had not taken these actions, and did not take further action, that the world as they knew it would come to an end. Paulson, as paraphrased by Rep. Paul Kanjorski, a Democrat from Pennsylvania, told congress:<br /><br /><em>If they had not done that, their estimation is that by 2pm that afternoon, $5.5 trillion would have been drawn out of the money market system of the U.S., would have collapsed the entire economy of the U.S., and within 24 hours the world economy would have collapsed. It would have been the end of our economic system and our political system as we know it.</em><br /><br />On September 18, 2008, with the financial markets in chaos, Congress, the White House, the Federal Reserve Bank, the Treasury, and leaders of the large financial institutions scrambled to stop the bleeding and prevent an all out collapse. These leaders will be referred to from this point forward as TPTB (The Powers That Be), for it was collusion among these leaders that stayed the collapse in the near term while making it all the more catastrophic when their manipulations inevitably failed.<br /><br />After temporarily stabilizing the financial markets in September, the next several months offered the last opportunities to minimize the pain that would be necessary to fix the financial system. This is when losses should have been taken and the banks restructured. The bad debt should have been exposed and flushed from the system. This would have caused a short term dislocation in the American and global economies, but it would have been over fairly quickly and would have provided a healthy foundation for recovery. Instead, TPTB instituted policies that would cover up the problem in the short term, but magnify the ultimate devastation that was guaranteed by their actions in the longer term.<br /><br />When the bailout for the institutional banks was announced, We the People did stand up and shout, but TPTB ignored the strident pleas of the population and bailed out the banks anyway. We the People were told that these banks were integral to the financial system itself. These banks, it was explained, were Too Big To Fail, for their failure posed “systemic risk” and could cause a complete failure of the global banking system; they had to be bailed out. This bailout was funded by We the People, though they did not agree to be pillaged in this manner.<br /><br />This is when We the People failed to fully recognize that the system in its totality was rigged for the banks, and that their elected political leaders were indeed bought and paid for by the institutional banking cabal.<br /><br />The American people had been fleeced in a number of ways by the fraudulent behavior of the institutional banks and, to add insult to injury, were then forced to bail them out. The sub-prime mortgage market was shot through with fraud, from appraisals to origination to processing to securitization to the ratings and sale of the securities. The entire business model was fraudulent. Then, when the bubble collapsed, the American taxpayer was forced to bail out the same institutions that had fleeced them. Not only that, but many of these people were invested in the pension funds that bought the worthless securities, and their retirement funds were now in jeopardy. The average middle-class American had been robbed in three different ways by the same institutions. <br /><br />This was akin to having one’s pocket picked by a meth addict, then, after he has smoked himself nearly to death on what he stole from you, being forced to allow the him to stay in your home while you pay for his rehabilitation. Then he turns around and burglarizes your home while the sheriff holds <em>you</em> at gunpoint.<br /><br />The financial crisis impacted the psyche of America, and as the U.S. approached the Presidential elections of 2008, Americans wanted change. <br /><br />Barack Hussein Obama represented change in every way. He couldn’t have appeared more different than George W. Bush, or the any of the Republicans, physically or ideologically. He was the first black nominee for either party, and the first truly serious black contender for the White House. It didn’t seem to matter to the American people that he was inexperienced and untested. He ran on a platform of Hope and Change, a brilliant campaign stroke at a time when America was hungry for hope and desperate for change. He was a charismatic orator, and a tireless campaigner, and the financial crisis couldn’t have come at a better time for Barack Hussein Obama.<br /><br />It was ironic that the American people, in their desperation for change, would elect not only the first black President, but one whose name sounded like that of a Muslim terrorist. In fact, the Iraqi war had been in part a thinly-veiled effort to remove Saddam <em>Hussein</em> from power in Iraq. And his last name, Obama, rhymed with <em>Osama</em>, as in, bin Laden, the world’s most influential terrorist at the time. That they would elect as President a black, very junior Senator with a terrorist name spoke volumes for the desperation in America.<br /><br />Obama, who said he would not appoint lobbyists and Wall Street insiders to influential positions, took office and promptly began appointing lobbyists and Wall Street insiders to just such positions. Many of his appointments created public embarrassments that he and the mainstream media substantially and successfully ignored. Many of Obama’s appointees seemed to have trouble paying their taxes. Ironically, Tim Geithner, Obama’s choice for Treasury Secretary, was found to owe the IRS over $35,000 in unpaid taxes. Still, Geithner was appointed to oversee the Treasury. Not only was he a tax cheat, he was also one of Wall Streets most influential advocates. So much for Obama’s promise.<br /><br />In 2009 Obama approved Ben Bernanke’s nomination to another term as Chairman of the Fed. Ben Bernanke had succeeded Alan Greenspan as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank in 2006. Bernanke was a Harvard educated economist and an academic. He had been a professor of economics at Princeton, and was a proclaimed expert on the Great Depression, prior to being appointed to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in 2002. In 2006, President George W. Bush appointed him to a four year term as Chairman of the Board of the Federal Reserve. It was widely believed (or at least, widely promoted) that Bernanke’s machinations to stem the crisis of 2008 had saved the world from disaster. Bernanke was even named Time magazine’s 2009 Man of the Year. Thus Obama kept him in power.<br /><br />Incredibly, very few people saw that Bernanke’s machinations were nothing more than a bailout of the banks at the taxpayer’s expense. Americans weren’t paying attention to details; they saw only the mendacious big picture painted by the mainstream media. A small minority opposed Bernanke’s reappointment, but they were a tiny voice in the din.<br /><br />It would be negligent to overlook the compliance of the mainstream media in the charade. Americans might not have been paying attention to details, but the alleged <em>journalists</em> of the mainstream media did little to provide honest details. The primary news media outlets were owned by corporations with plenty of motive not to rock the boat. If Americans had been exposed to the truth, perhaps they would have woken up sooner.<br /><br /><br />Part VI continues the construction of the historical perspective.Wonderwoodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13118126631519254865noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34499700.post-82942759960950763462011-01-01T15:24:00.000-08:002011-01-01T15:26:51.936-08:00Looking Back At America - Part IVThis is Part IV in the Looking Back At America series, which presents the perspective of what today's America might look like to historians 100 years in the future. This series of articles is most easily understood by starting with the first installment.<br /><br />For over two decades American prosperity was on the rise. There were minor setbacks. The late eighties and the nineties saw recessions, but they were relatively brief and shallow. Policy-makers allowed the recessions to occur naturally. Recessions are natural and healthy and necessary for organic growth in a free market economy. Excesses are voided from the system, as they should be. The economy burps and feels better afterward.<br /><br />For two decades, the collective mood of America was also on the rise. It can be said that the collective mood of most of the Western world was on the rise, but nowhere more so than America. Unemployment was low, holding steady below five percent the majority of the time from 1982 through 2000. People felt safe in their homes and safe in their jobs. The future looked bright.<br /><br />Because people generally felt good about the future, they took their eyes off the ball. They became accustomed to being in debt, with credit cards, car loans, and mortgages, and didn’t worry about their ability to pay their debts, because on paper they looked wealthy.<br /><br />There was a bit of a disruption in mood when the stock markets tanked in the spring of 2000 and the economy went into its worst recession in two decades, but even then, people knew that the American economy would bounce back shortly. It always did.<br /><br />This time, however, policy-makers didn’t allow the economy to recover naturally and void the bad debt it had accumulated. The Federal Reserve Bank, under the direction of Alan Greenspan, lowered interest rates to try to force liquidity into the system. It didn’t matter that the system wasn’t suffering from a lack of liquidity, but rather trying to void the waste of excessive speculation, liquidity was viewed as the solution.<br /><br />The large institutional banks, now free to both create credit and use it, did what banks do and found ways to capitalize on the easy money policy of The Fed in a non-regulated environment. They started lending money as fast as they could find borrowers. This unchecked credit expansion is precisely what led to the bubble in the housing market and the explosion in real estate that occurred between 2001 and 2006. <br /><br />If Americans felt wealthy in the late nineties, by 2005 they felt filthy rich. A couple in their early thirties who bought a house in 2001 had $100,000 in equity by 2005, in many cases much more than that. They could refinance their mortgage at historically low interest rates, take out $50,000 in cash, and not even see an increase in their mortgage payment. In fact, many even saw their payment decrease.<br /><br />During the eighties and nineties, America went through a period of de-industrialization. U.S. corporations moved manufacturing operations to other countries with more favorable tax policies, cheaper labor, and few, if any, environmental restrictions. Due to advances in technology, agriculture needed fewer laborers, so employment in agriculture became less significant to the overall economy. The U.S. economy became tilted much more toward services and away from manufacturing and agriculture.<br /><br />In 2006, America was at the height of her hubris. Americans had become accustomed to a comfortable life that was bought but not paid for. They had fallen in love with false prosperity, living in debt but not feeling poor because no one saw the end of real estate appreciation, and the stock market had been rising for four years straight. <br /><br />But 2006 was the year that something changed. The first tiny cracks in the real estate market began to appear. High risk borrowers who obtained adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) in the early 2000’s began to default on their loans as interest rates adjusted higher after the initial teaser period. As these defaults began to show up in large numbers, the real estate market stopped appreciating. Few people at the time thought of this as anything more than a minor bump in the road, and virtually no one understood, or would admit to, the fact that the system had reached the point of credit saturation.<br /><br />The stock market continued higher into 2007 and people were still optimistic about the future, but perhaps less so. The euphoria was starting to wane a bit. Although the credit market had stopped expanding exponentially, real estate prices had flattened, and America was fighting two wars (Iraq and Afghanistan), people still had jobs and their stocks looked good, so there was no noticeable change in lifestyles. However, the underpinnings of the American quality of life were showing serious weaknesses to the few who bothered to look. The ones who bothered to look saw that the American dream had become a lifestyle based on debt and supported by the illusion of wealth.<br /><br /><br />Part V continues the construction of the historical perspective.Wonderwoodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13118126631519254865noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34499700.post-85940073965060189152011-01-01T14:56:00.000-08:002011-01-01T14:58:31.528-08:00Looking Back At America - Part IIIThis is Part III in the Looking Back At America series, which presents the perspective of what today's America might look like to historians 100 years in the future. This series of articles is most easily understood by starting with the first installment.<br /><br />It was during the mid-eighties to the late nineties that more and more middle-class Americans were becoming stockholders and investing, if somewhat tentatively at first, in the financial markets; buying stocks, participating in 401K plans, investing their savings with their eyes on big returns. People who had never owned stocks before – hadn’t even really thought about it – were now buying stock, afraid not to because they didn’t want to miss out on this incredible opportunity and be left behind on the road to riches.<br /><br />The internet mania was coming into full bloom at the same time that banks were making it easier to borrow money. Because prospects were good, people had an appetite for risk, and many borrowed money to speculate on the Dot Com craze. The mania turned into a full-blown bubble by the late nineties and the stock markets experienced a meteoric rise, led by the technology firms and internet-based companies of the NASDAQ index.<br /><br />People saw their investment portfolios double and triple in the late nineties, and they felt wealthy because, well, on paper they looked wealthy. The American middle-class fell in love with their newfound prosperity. They spent money freely, though their incomes had not improved significantly. It was okay, though, because according to their stock portfolios, they were doing just fine.<br /><br />Credit cards were now available to anyone with a job, and people spent money they had not yet earned. Car loans were available with no money down, and in fact people could even finance the taxes they paid when they bought their car. <br /><br />While previous generations worked and saved so that they could buy the things they wanted, people now bought first and paid later. The culture was changing. Being in debt became a way of life, but people did not worry much because their stock portfolios and 401Ks were doing quite well, thank you.<br /><br />The Dot Com craze came crashing down as the NASDAQ tanked in April, 2000. Investors had poured hundreds of billions of dollars into companies that never produced a dime of profit, but whose stock prices had risen exponentially on the potential that they would become immensely profitable one day. Irrational exuberance was the fuel for the fire, but this insanity began to wane as the companies wallowed in losses before finally going belly up. Investors lost billions. People no longer felt so wealthy, and the economy went into a recession in late 2000 that lasted until 2002. <br /><br />And it was during this time, the eighties and nineties, that commercial banks and investment banks were pushing for deregulation of the finance industry. They wanted the right to merge their operations, and expand into those areas that current laws prohibited.<br /><br />The Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 came into existence as a result of the Great Depression, and imposed laws that kept commercial banks separate from investment banks. This act was designed to control speculation and avoid moral hazard. It was designed to keep an entity from being able to both grant credit and use credit; otherwise, banks could basically create and lend money to themselves for the purpose of speculation. It was designed to prevent another Great Depression, and it had.<br /><br />Banks began lobbying to repeal this Act in the eighties, and the movement gathered steam going through the nineties. It was in 1999 that the critical decision was made to repeal Glass-Steagall. It was this decision that exposed the underpinnings of the global financial system to the rapacious corruption that ultimately led to The Great Collapse.<br /><br />On November 12, 1999 President Bill Clinton signed into law the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, which repealed Glass-Steagall and allowed commercial banks to operate investment divisions, and vice versa. This act gave birth to the exponential credit expansion of the early 2000’s. This was the first necessary ingredient in the recipe for disaster.<br /><br />It was during the 2000-2002 recession that the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank, Alan Greenspan, lowered interest rates in an effort to provide a boost to the economy. And it did, as it opened the valve on the real estate bubble that would inflate for the next five years. This was the second necessary ingredient.<br /><br />With the repeal of Glass-Steagall and a loose monetary policy by The Fed, large banks such as Citigroup, Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Wachovia, Washington Mutual, and Bank of America were now inventing new investment vehicles; creating exotic, complex securities - known as derivatives - that were sold mostly to institutional investors such as pension funds and mutual funds that were attracted by the strong returns promised by the banks. These investors were the teachers’ union pension funds, and the firefighters and police and autoworkers’ pension funds, and government employee pension funds, and the managers of corporate 401K plans.<br /><br />This is where cause and effect begin to blur. Beginning in 2001, thanks to the easy money policy of The Fed, low interest rate mortgages were stimulating housing demand, and also creating a market for mortgage refinances. The mortgage industry was booming, aided by an easy market in which to fund these mortgages: the Big Banks. The banks bought these mortgages, pooled them and divided them into risk tranches, based on the credit-worthiness of the mortgages in the tranches. This process was known as “securitization”. They then packaged and sold these securities, known as Mortgage Backed Securities, or MBS, to the large investors (pension funds). <br /><br />Because the managers of these pension funds had a fiduciary duty to buy only the highest quality securities, it was necessary for the banks to have these securities rated AAA by the rating agencies such as S&P, Moody’s, and Fitch’s. It is difficult to say with any certainty whether the analysts in the rating houses were corrupt, stupid, or both, but it is plain to see that they applied AAA ratings to securities that were clearly higher risk than what was specified by the rating criteria. This was the third ingredient in the recipe for disaster.<br /><br />Now, with the path cleared for the pension fund managers to buy these AAA rated securities that promised 8% or greater returns, demand for these securities soared. The banks had a seemingly insatiable market for MBS. This gave birth to the massive sub-prime mortgage industry, as the banks created new types of loans that were marketed to people with worse and worse credit. The prime mortgage market was mature, but the subprime market had yet to be truly exploited, so the banks went after subprime borrowers with frenetic gusto. Banks were so anxious to create more mortgages that by 2005, a person with a 600 FICO score could buy a home with no money down and without having to prove they even had a job. Yet somehow the securities derived from these questionable mortgage pools were still rated AAA.<br /><br />As mortgages became easier to obtain, and interest rates continued to fall, demand for houses skyrocketed and drove real estate prices into a mode of nearly exponential appreciation. From 2001 through 2006, real estate prices in many markets doubled every two years. In nearly all significant markets, property values appreciated a minimum of 75% in those years. This was the fourth, and most visible, ingredient in the recipe.<br /><br />As property values appreciated exponentially, homeowners felt wealthy again. A home for which someone paid $150,000 in 2001 was worth $225,000 in 2004, and $350,000 in 2006. With all this equity, people could refinance at a lower rate, take out some cash with which to remodel their kitchen or buy a new SUV, and not see much of an increase in their mortgage payment. This felt like real wealth.<br /><br />The construction industry boomed as developers built new neighborhoods as fast as they could buy up the land. Carpenters, electricians, plumbers, roofers, landscapers, all were thriving, and they were buying houses, too. The construction industry, both residential and commercial, provided a feedback loop and helped fuel the bubble.<br /><br />And people speculated. People who had never built a house before were getting into the homebuilding business, buying lots and building spec houses, turning them and starting two more.<br /><br />Another cottage industry that emerged was the House Flipping business. People who had never speculated in real estate before could get loans to buy second houses based on the equity they had in their primary residence. They bought homes, did a little landscaping and applied new designer paint, installed wood floors, and three months later sold the homes for 25% more than they invested. Then they did it again, and again. Many people generated substantial “wealth” in this manner.<br /><br />Banks were now offering Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs) to those homeowners with equity, which was just about anyone who owned a home for more than a week. This helped fuel a home remodeling frenzy as everyone now had to have wood floors, granite counter tops, and stainless steel appliances. But the difference with these loans was that the banks kept most of these loans on their books, rather than packaging and selling them. This would prove to be critical.<br /><br />All of this development activity spawned new businesses to cater to the new neighborhoods. Grocery stores, dry cleaners, hair and nail salons, restaurants, gyms, flooring stores, landscape businesses, nurseries, and gas stations all sprang up around the new residential developments. Banks were handing out commercial loans with the same gusto as residential mortgages, and they packaged these loans into securities and sold them also.<br /><br />Most big cities experienced expanding suburban sprawl. Counties and municipalities had to build new roads and new schools, new water treatment facilities and additional capacity on the power grid, but as property values increased, so did tax revenues, so these governments spent freely. They also sold bonds to raise money for their growing infrastructure needs, and as their coffers grew, so did their budgets, but this was no concern, as property values continued to rise. This was yet another ingredient in the catastrophic recipe.<br /><br />But how could all of this be bad? From the outside looking in, America was thriving. Everyone had iPhones and flat screen TVs and shiny cars. If all of the previously stated ingredients looked good on the outside, how could they become so harmful when mixed together? How could this lead to The Great Collapse? An examination of the psyche of the American public will offer some insight.<br /><br /><br />Part IV will continue the construction of the historical perspective.Wonderwoodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13118126631519254865noreply@blogger.com18tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34499700.post-32492259221556371622011-01-01T14:45:00.000-08:002011-01-01T14:50:57.110-08:00Looking Back At America - Part IIThis is Part II in the Looking Back At America series, which presents the perspective of what today's America might look like to historians 100 years in the future. This series of articles is most easily understood by starting with the first installment.<br /><br />In the early 1980’s, as the Greatest Generation reached retirement age and the Baby Boomers grew into their prime earning years, America and many of the world’s most advanced societies began an ascent that can only be described as fantastic. <br /><br />Ronald Reagan was the President of the United States and the country was on a course of increasing prosperity. America had just weathered more than a decade of hard times, but patriotism was enjoying a revival. The sixties and seventies had been challenging times, economically and politically, but by the early eighties the country was on the mend and people were optimistic about the future. Ronald Reagan was a strong, charismatic leader, the economy was growing, and Americans were feeling good about America.<br /><br />The U.S. economy was the engine that drove production and growth throughout much of the rest of the world. The economy was fueled by the American consumer and as the U.S. emerged from the doldrums of the seventies, Americans had more disposable income and were willing to spend it. Credit cards also were becoming a staple in the wallet of the consumer, and it was becoming easier to spend money one had not yet earned. But, the economy was surging and all prospects looked good, so there was little concern with debt.<br /><br />The American middle-class was a powerful force and comprised about sixty percent of the U.S. population. Middle-class Americans generally lived in a house; had a color television set; a phone; a car, maybe two; a grill in the backyard and a basketball goal in the driveway. Middle-class Americans worked hard, but they also enjoyed their recreation. They played bridge, and bowled, and played golf, and the kids played baseball and football and cheered and danced and took piano lessons. They had block parties and cookouts, cut the grass, raked the leaves, and generally treated their neighbors with respect. People, for the most part, were happy and felt positive about their prospects. Life was good and getting better. The collective social mood was on the rise.<br /><br />Americans were productive, hard-working people and enjoyed an increasingly comfortable quality of life. And they were proud of it. America was the Land of the Free and the Home of the Brave. Many people in the world believed America was the Promised Land, and immigrated to America in search of the American Dream, or for the more practical reason, to escape oppression. Yet to others, America and Americans were to be despised; they were thought of as arrogant and crude, a society of belligerent bullies.<br /><br />No matter how the rest of the world thought of America, if you were American, you were proud of it. From a global perspective, Americans were the kids at the cool table in the high school cafeteria.<br /><br />American innovation was carving a path toward the information age, and the U.S. military was the mightiest, most technologically advanced fighting force in the world. America dominated the air and sea, yet frequently found itself in ground wars it could not win. America tried to force her will upon certain regions where it would be advantageous to have an ally in power, but found that she could not win the war short of a pyrrhic victory. In Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, the U.S. fought to a draw in wars that drained its coffers and produced no strategic advantage.<br /><br />The American economy and indeed the global economy were dependent on oil. The countries of the Middle East supplied most of the world’s oil, and this was a region consumed with religious and tribal conflicts; highly unstable and unpredictable. America was the world’s largest consumer of petroleum, and the lion’s share of America’s petroleum was imported from countries in the Middle East. For that reason, America tried to impose her will on this region, supporting certain nations, like Israel, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, while being at odds with others, such as Iran and Iraq. American leaders spoke of peace in the region but often supplied the instruments for war, if not the armies. America wanted peace, but she wanted it her way.<br /><br />In the early nineties the personal computer and the cell phone exploded onto the scene. Advances in transistor technology and miniaturization allowed for the proliferation of the cell phone and laptop computers as they shrank in size and grew in power. It was during this decade that personal computers became ubiquitous in homes and offices, and virtually everyone had a cell phone.<br /><br />The mid-nineties brought the proliferation of the internet and the World Wide Web, and spawned the Information Age, where with a few taps on the keyboard and clicks of a mouse, people could access just about any kind of information and it would be delivered right to their desktop. The birth of the World Wide Web gave rise to a global industry that impacted every nook and cranny of society, from business to military to government to consumer. <br /><br />As America approached the new millennium, the sky, it seemed, was the limit. <br /><br /><br />Part III continues the construction of the historic perspective.Wonderwoodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13118126631519254865noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34499700.post-50032006161737466242011-01-01T14:41:00.000-08:002011-01-01T14:45:00.795-08:00Looking Back At America - A Hundred Years From NowHistoric times, these days. Epic times. Looking back, a hundred years from now, people are going to say, “Why didn’t they see it coming?”<br /><br />Eighty years ago we had The Great Depression. Eighty years from now, the times in which we currently live might be called The Great Collapse. Just as with The Great Depression, future economists and other self-proclaimed experts will disagree as to the exact cause of The Great Collapse, but there will be no question that We The People fell asleep at the wheel, allowed the banking cartels to take control of the government and the economy, and waited until it was too late to take the painful but necessary actions to save the country from the greatest financial, economic, and social catastrophe the world has ever seen.<br /><br />History will view the generation currently in power as the generation that ran America off a cliff. This generation is commonly referred to as the Baby Boomers. History will not treat this generation kindly, nor should it, because this generation, when the chips were down, didn’t have the balls to make the difficult decisions that were needed to save the country from disaster. Indeed, they created the policies that allowed for the unprecedented explosion in the credit markets, and when confronted with the pernicious consequences of their policies, failed to take corrective action. For this reason, history will view this generation as an epic failure.<br /><br />But to blame one generation is not accurate, because it’s not that simple. No, it was actually a blend of multiple generations that created the circumstances leading to The Great Collapse. The Centennials (the generation coming of age at the turn of the Twentieth Century) and the Greatest Generation laid the groundwork and built the foundation, and the Baby Boomers and Generation X were more than happy to raise the walls and hoist the rafters. The people born between 1875-1975, give or take a few years, are the people who created the system, perpetuated it, abused it and finally broke it. But it is the Baby Boomers who are at the wheel at this critical time in history. <br /><br />Some will assert that it was the creation of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank in 1913 that set in motion the events that would eventually lead to the collapse. This is true, but the collapse wasn’t imminent at the moment the Fed was created; decisions made later charted the disastrous course (though these decisions were only made possible by the existence of the Fed). <br /><br />And it is in 2011 that the last opportunities to steer away from the cliff are being ignored. Difficult choices are being avoided. The American Empire is straining under the burden of unsustainable debt, while We The People sit idly by, occupied with iPhones and FaceBook, where we tell anyone who cares to listen what we are having for dinner, or that we joined a karate class, or that the baby just crapped its diaper.<br /><br />The Baby Boomers will be blamed because they are holding the wheel as the country goes over the cliff. They are the ones in the leadership positions, ignoring reality in favor of greed-fueled schemes, while the general population is too enraptured by the illusion of prosperity to actually look at what is happening. As blatant as our leaders’ incompetence and greed will look to us in a few years, it is the American population, We the People, who have allowed ourselves to be distracted, marginalized, and defrauded.<br /><br />And while history will judge us harshly for our greed, corruption, and neglect, this is not the entire picture. It would be unfair to ignore the accomplishments of these generations, for we have also overseen the greatest advances in technology, science, and medicine since the beginning of human history. We built a quality of life unmatched by any other society in history. These achievements provide the contrast, and the irony, for our greatest failures.<br /><br />So what happened?<br /><br />Let’s take a look at what our society might look like when viewed from the historical perspective of a hundred years in the future. In an attempt to simplify an immensely complex situation, a macro view will be presented, with a focus on the terminal economic, financial, and political conditions that led to The Great Collapse.<br /><br /><br />Part II begins the construction of the historic persperctive.Wonderwoodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13118126631519254865noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34499700.post-27052999069086337352010-09-22T08:18:00.000-07:002010-09-22T17:21:40.672-07:00RantI'm frustrated. My friends and family, for the most part, do not share my view of what is happening to our country. Sure, they're upset about the economy and many of them feel that Hopey the Clown is running some BS about an economic recovery; they're not blind, they can see that things are not getting better. But they don't truly see the danger.<br /><br />My view is that we are now at the brink of a catastrophic collapse. An economic catastrophe of epic proportions. And no, I don't blame Hopey for all of it. This is a situation that has been building for more than two decades. Our current lifestyles have been built on policies of credit expansion which have led to an environment of false prosperity. We were headed for a cliff before Hopey took office, but his policies, along with Bernanke and The Fed, have guaranteed that we're going to drive off the cliff in spectacular fashion.<br /><br />People talk of bubbles. There was the tech bubble of the late 90's and the real estate bubble of the 2000's. These bubbles were the manifestation of credit expansion policies; credit expansion was the air that blew up the bubbles. We've now reached the point of credit saturation (QE is the proof of that, though it will prove to be a futile attempt to let the air out slowly), and once the saturation point is reached, a contraction must follow. Credit contraction has another name, it's called "Deflation". Deflation and depression go hand in hand.<br /><br />My view is that we have not had a recovery at all, but a delay of the inevitable. Yes, the stock market rallied from the lows of March 2009, but this was a correction of the initial decline, which was only a partial decline: the first wave down of the depression, which is occuring in a stair-step down fashion. Until we reach the recognition point, at which time things will accelerate downward at a pace that will shock everyone, hope will still surface and try to breathe. It's happening now.<br /><br />If one looks at the mathematics of the debt, GDP, the housing market and the position of the banks in both commercial and residential real estate, there is no other conclusion one can reach about the outcome. The Fed can claim to have tools and weapons to combat deflation, but all they are doing is delaying the inevitable, and compounding the ultimate damage.<br /><br />I'm frustrated because I have friends and family with a lot to lose, and when I talk to them about the situation, their eyes glaze over. Sure things are bad, they say, but the elections are coming up and we'll get this spending under control and we'll bounce back. They refuse to look at the underlying fundamentals. They have hope that things won't get that bad, and if they do, the .gov will somehow save us.<br /><br />Hope is good in most cases. Hope can sustain you through tough times. But when hope turns into denial it can be devastating. Recently I was playing golf with a good friend, a very successful entreprenuer who has built up some sizeable wealth. I told him I think the lows of 2009 will be breached on the way to a much lower bottom. "Damn, I lost my ass in that last decline. I've gotten a lot of it back now, but damn, I hope you're wrong."<br /><br />Hope is not a strategy, my friend.<br /><br />Hope does not die easily, nor should it, but hope is treading dangerously close to denial. People have already forgotten the fear and confusion they felt in 2008, the near panic that rippled through the country and the world. Hope bounces back.<br /><br />I've tried to help my friends and family see the big picture, but I've noticed that people walk away when I start talking about my view of the future, so I choose my moments with discretion.<br /><br />And I'm not without hope myself. I have hope for a better future after we hit the bottom and rebuild. I think we'll be stronger for it, those of us who make it through to the end. I think manufacturing will come back to the US, we'll come up with new innovations that will be better for the population and the planet, we'll be leaner but hopefully smarter. Unfortunately, we have to hit bottom before we rebuild. The credit contraction must happen; the bad debt must be purged from the system before true capital formation can occur. It will be painful, and we cannot avoid it, but let's try to minimize the pain with intelligent monetary and economic policies.<br /><br />I'm not going to beat my head on the wall any longer, but I'll still share my views when asked. And I'm sure that once the inevitable occurs, I'll have friends and family asking plenty of questions.Wonderwoodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13118126631519254865noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34499700.post-35246191678002465172010-02-09T18:17:00.000-08:002010-02-09T18:46:50.503-08:00Sarah Palin for President?Why is this even a topic of conversation? Is there really a percentage of the population that think this is a good idea? Hopefully - please God - it is a very tiny percentage, because just the fact that she is even mentioned as a potential candidate sends me into a swirling vortex of disbelief and anger.<br /><br />Folks, she is a BIMBO! The Palmgate thing is just the most recent evidence, but don't let it overshadow her previous displays of ignorance. Anyone remember the Katie Couric interview? I thought so.<br /><br />This is the same Sarah Palin that was elected by the PEOPLE OF ALASKA (How? I have no idea) to be the CEO of their state, and she walked away from the job when the going got a little bit tough. Or maybe it was because she was tired of running a state and had higher aspirations and thought that her job as governor might interfere with her plans to run for president. I don't know what her motivation was, all I know is she fucking QUIT. <br /><br />There should be a law that says if you quit the post you campaigned for and to which you were elected, you can't run for public office again for anything, ever. End of story.<br /><br />If it's not a law, it should at least be common sense to the voters that you don't elect a fucking quitter to a higher office. I mean, come on. Does this need to be explained? I saw a lady on TV recently - something Geller, I think her name was (I was in too much disbelief to remember her first name, dammit) - saying that Palin quit because the "Lower 48" needed her. Are you fucking serious? <br /><br />And she was telling Ron Reagan (yes, son of the former Prez) that his father would have liked Palin. Ron, Jr. was like, you've lost your mind, he wouldn't be able to tolerate her. And Geller (who never met President Reagan, by the way) argued that yes he would too like her. It was one of the most assinine displays of ignorance I've ever seen. This lady was so unaware of her own ignorance that she was impossible to shut up and was flat out rude to the other people on the panel. I cry for our country when I see things like this.<br /><br />Message to Sarah Palin:<br /><br />Please, just go back to your good ol' home state of Alaska, go back to bein' a hockey mom and droppin' your "g's" at the PTA meetin's and talkin' all folksy and cutesy pie, and just drop off the radar. Please. This country is in bad shape and all you're doing is throwing gravel into the cogs. I was interested in hearing what the Tea Party had to say. I wanted to find out where this fledgling political party stands on the vital issues facing our country, but was so disappointed that you were chosen to be the featured spokesperson that I really can't take the Tea Party seriously anymore. You, however, didn't fail to disappoint, you played the clueless bimbo to perfection. <br /><br />Ron Paul, anyone? The Libertarian Party is looking pretty good right now.Wonderwoodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13118126631519254865noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34499700.post-6310963197266136842010-01-21T07:31:00.000-08:002010-01-21T08:33:50.968-08:00A Few Good Men (and Women)I'm normally a pretty optimistic guy. I can usually be found looking on the bright side, hoping for and expecting the best. I believe in the good of mankind. I've always looked for the best in people, and I have a tendency to take them at their word until given a reason to do otherwise. <br /><br />Not so much anymore.<br /><br />This isn't about John Edwards specifically; it's more about politicians in general. Edwards' ignominy is just the most recent shining example of the character of our illustrious elected leaders. This is a guy who made a pretty serious run at the most powerful position in the world, and he's a confirmed cheater and an admitted liar. I'm inclined to believe he's also a thief. <br /><br />I'm fed up with Democrats and Republicans alike. If the current roster of Senators and Congresspeople are a sample of the best people that America has to offer, we're all doomed.<br /><br />The lies are so blantant, and told with a smile and a gleam in the eye of the teller. And it's not just a few of them. Seems like every politician is a liar. I'm sure that's not true (there's my optimism again), but take just a couple of examples.<br /><br />Bammy (my sobriquet for President Obama) runs on a platform of "Change We Can Believe In", and gets elected. Most Americans recognize the need for change, and we put our money where our mouth is and elected the first black president in American history. During his campaign, Bammy promised the American people that his administration would be different, no more Washington insider bullshit. He promised that no lobbyists would be appointed to his administration. Then, it seemed like everyone he tried to appoint to his staff were not only lobbyists, but HAD NOT PAID THEIR FUCKING TAXES! Tom Daschle, anyone? Not a lobbyist? Uh, okay. Also, he owed $140,000 in back taxes and interest. A fine upstanding citizen. Timothy Geithner, Bammy's pick for Treasury Secretary, owed $34,000 in back taxes and $8,000 in interest! Really? What a surprise. <br /><br />Way to live up to your word, Bammy.<br /><br />And how about that Sarah Palin? What a fine character she is. Gets elected Governor of Alaska, and is subsequently chosen by John McCain to be his running mate as Vice President. She comes on strong, gets the Republican Party fired up with her sexy mouth and well-toned legs, and promptly shows her ignorance on national TV during the infamous Katie Couric interview. She's completely clueless about world affairs. She comes across like a total bimbo. My heart was broken, and I began to question McCain's judgement. Then, after they lost the election, Palin fucking QUITS her job as Governor! Really, Sarah? And now people are talking about her potentially running for President? God save us all.<br /><br />"The only thing required for evil to prevail is for good men to do nothing." <br /><br />This quote has been attributed to several different people over the years but no one knows for sure who originated it. Doesn't matter. It's the truth.Wonderwoodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13118126631519254865noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34499700.post-4190655909877943872009-08-16T06:54:00.001-07:002009-08-16T08:20:08.262-07:00What Comes AroundFrom the karma department:<br /><br />It's funny how it happens sometimes. Little karma events that might go unnoticed if you aren't paying attention. I've seen it happen on a larger scale, but those usually aren't quite as funny as the smaller ones.<br /><br />The first time I really noticed the reciprocal nature of things, I was about fifteen. I was playing in a Pony League baseball game and a guy on my team hit a fly ball to right field. The right fielder tentatively tracked the pop up, moved around a little as he waited, had his glove up, and the ball came straight down on his head. I laughed out loud. We slapped palms in the dugout, and generally made a ruckus that made the poor right fielder feel pretty bad. <br /><br />Two innings later when we were in the field, I was playing shortstop. The rightfielder was up at the plate. Dude hit a hard grounder at me and as I went down for it, the ball hit a pebble, took a funny hop, and hit me right between the eyes. As I lay on my back looking up at the sky, seeing stars, the thought popped into my head, "That'll teach you."<br /><br />Last weekend I was at a party at my friends' house, Gary and Missy. They have a great set-up in their backyard, with a pool and a tiki bar, horse shoes off to the side. We play a lot of water volleyball in the pool. It's usually coed, and sometimes it can get pretty competitive. We were playing five on five in a close game and my team was serving. I was on the front line, the guy serving was right behind me. He hit a line drive serve, missed it I should say, because instead of going over the net it hit me right on the side of the face. Stung like a sumbitch, too. <br /><br />Well, everyone got a laugh out of it, and the guy who hit it convinced me that it was truly an accident, so it didn't turn into an ass whipping. As everyone was laughing I noticed that one friend, Tara, playing on the other team, was laughing a little too hard for my taste. She was taking a little too much pleasure in my misfortune. I didn't say anything, but I did make note of it.<br /><br />Later in the game, a ball went up near the net and my boy Skinny went up for a spike. He nailed it hard to the side, but it hit the side wall of the pool and ricocheted directly into, you guessed it, Tara's face. It didn't hurt her bad, but I know it stung like hell. I didn't laugh out loud, but I gotta admit, I was laughing pretty hard on the inside. I was thinking, "That'll teach you". I wonder if she made the connection to her earlier laughter. Probably not, and therefore she didn't understand the significance of this karmic event. The lesson was not lost on me, however.<br /><br />The lesson is: don't get too cocky because it's never inconvenient for God to bitch slap your ass back to a more humble state of mind.Wonderwoodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13118126631519254865noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34499700.post-46528192109692843812009-08-14T19:38:00.000-07:002009-08-14T20:33:42.173-07:00Hitting BottomI make no secret of the fact that I'm a recovering alcoholic. I don't thump my chest about it, nor am I ashamed of it. It is what it is, part of who and what I am today. So I went to an AA meeting tonight (People ask me, "You've been sober for a while and you still have to go to those meetings?" Makes me laugh, I go because I want to. You can't beat an AA meeting for pure entertainment value.) and the topic of the meeting tonight was hitting bottom.<br /><br />This young fellow, a newcomer, attending the meetings in an attempt to build goodwill with the judge before his DUI trial, raised his hand and asked a question. "What is a bottom, really? I mean, I kinda know what you're talking about, but how do you know when you've hit bottom?"<br /><br />This old tattooed biker dude named Jim, big guy with a silver ponytail and wire-frame glasses, raised his hand to reply. Jim's voice sounded like gravel churning in a deep well. He said, "You know you've hit bottom when the bad shit is coming at you faster than you can lower your standards."<br /><br />I found that simple explanation to be very profound. A slice of wisdom based on experience that I can relate to. I hit many bottoms, but I always managed to lower my standards further. <br /><br />I was what you call your "low-bottom drunk". <br /><br />Thank God for friends and family, or I would not be here to share these insights with the hapless reader who stumbles upon this blog. By the grace of the Spirit I've been sober over 6 years now, and I have a great life. I'm not saying I'm a choir boy, but I haven't had an alcoholic beverage of any kind.<br /><br />But that's not the point. I'm getting there, though. So, I was thinking about what Jim said, and how I always managed to lower my standards. No matter how bad it got, I could rationalize it into being not all that bad. I was kind of zoning on this and I noticed a guy in the meeting who looked like Harold Ramis, which made me think of the movie Stripes, which made me think of Bill Murray's "Big Toe" monologue, which made me think of my own big toes.<br /><br />During a couple of very drunken episodes, I managed to break both of my big toes. Not at the same time; separate occasions, separate toes. One episode I remember - a Panama City trip. Need I say more? The other episode I was in a blackout. On both occasions, I didn't just break my toe, I mangled it. My right toe I broke and jammed at the same time, and split the tip of it wide open. Very nasty. The other one, it looked like I dropped an anvil on it, and none of the other toes were damaged in the slightest. No idea what happened, just woke up the next morning and cried like a little girl when I rolled out of bed and tried to stumble to the bathroom. <br /><br />Thinking of the damage to my toes got me to thinking about all the other damage I did to myself and others when I was drinking. I abused myself pretty severely, and in the process, hurt the people around me. I've done my best to make amends to those I harmed, though not everyone has been crossed off the list. I'm working on it, though.<br /><br />This time last summer, I was doing my best to make amends to my father. I'd made verbal amends long ago, and he'd forgiven me, as he always forgave my transgressions. But this was real. I was making a living amends to him, by taking care of him as his health failed, doing my best to be a good son. I'm grateful that I had the opportunity to do this, and that I followed through and did my best for him. This probably isn't a big deal for most people, but it was a big deal for me. It was growth. I sit here today and think about what a blessing it was to have that time with him, and I'm grateful. I'm grateful to him for everything he did for me.<br /><br />So, to get back to the point of hitting bottom. It doesn't matter how far down you go. Everyone stumbles in life, everyone falls. Some fall further than others. What matters, really, is how you bounce. You can use the bottom to launch. Find your Spirit and launch. It's inside everyone, this Spirit, and if you look inside and find it, amazing things can happen. <br /><br />I'm proof. I'm a walking miracle. Bounce, man.Wonderwoodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13118126631519254865noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34499700.post-85204726091575261122009-07-20T20:33:00.000-07:002009-07-20T21:42:09.170-07:00A Key InsightI mentioned a few posts back that for several months I've been doing some research on the stock market and stumbled upon the Elliott Wave Institute website. I read up on The Elliott Wave Principle, the underlying theory behind the science of Socionomics.<br /><br />In short, the Elliott Wave Prinicple proposes that mankind is born with an internal mechanism the governs a collective social mood. This social mood moves in a repeating pattern and has a dynamic form that is self-similar from small to large degrees in what is called a robust fractal. So, at any given time, collectively, we are at some degree of hope or pessimism. The stock markets are the most immediate reflection of our collective social mood. Rising hope is reflected in a bull market. Increasing pessimism is reflected in a bear market. The Elliott Wave is reflected in similar form in an hourly chart, a weekly chart, monthly, on up to the scale covering the centuries that data is available, and the form repeats itself.<br /><br />Socionomics studies all of the social implications of the wave theory. According to the premise, the Elliott Wave governs social, political, economic, and cultural trends. If this is true, isn't this a HUGE insight? If you know where you are on the wave, at all of the various degrees, you could predict with some reliable degree of probability where things are going, couldn't you? Robert Prechter, father of the science of Socionomics says, yes, absolutely.<br /><br />I find this proposal fascinating. If we, society in general, are all moving in a similar direction and you understand the direction, it has tremendous implications for not only investing but also business forecasting and predicting trends in fashion and entertainment, not to mention having a deeper understanding of current social events. <br /><br />Prechter and his followers say that entertainment trends are easily predictable. In a bull market, Disney movies, romantic comedies, and other light-hearted themes are popular. In a bear market, horror and monster movies ride the tops of the charts. Notice the popularity of vampires in the last few years? We've been in a large degree bear market since 2000. Prechter also predicted in his 2002 book Conquer the Crash, that newer, more brutal sports would become popular. Notice the UFC craze in the last few years?<br /><br />What this means, if true, is that we (globally) are on the cusp of the biggest crash in about 300 years. That's what the Elliott Wave Prinicple shows on the charts. Big time, scary stuff. <br /><br />Do I believe it? Yeah, I guess I do. I'm fairly educated. I've taken numerous classes in economics in business school and I think I have a pretty solid grasp of the fundamentals of modern economic theory. The funny thing is, economists' forecasts hardly ever agree with each other, and when a majority of them agree, they are invariably wrong. Ask twenty economists what caused the Great Depression and you'll get 20 different answers. And this 80 years after the fact. If they can't explain what already happened, how can they possibly hope to predict what is going to happen? The Elliott Wave Prinicple, from what I've learned in my studies, has a very good track record of forecasting the big trends, and with some degree of reliability, the smaller ones. <br /><br />It's a difficult concept to grasp, this theory, because it proposes that our mood isn't affected by social events, but rather, social events are affected by our mood. It basically turns conventional wisdom inside out.<br /><br />Gangsta rap doesn't make kids want to kill cops, they already want to kill them; the music is just an expression of their mood. Sure, you might have a few isolated incidents where a kid got inspired by a song, but I'm inclined to believe he was already leaning that way.<br /><br />What about how the stock market jumps up and down on Fed announcements and earnings reports and so forth? Well, if you look at the charts, there might be a short term spike or drop, but the overall trend quickly kicks back in to correct it.<br /><br />The implications of this theory are far reaching. I've only scratched the surface here, but my imagination can get carried away pretty easily as I observe what's going on around me from a socionomic perspective. <br /><br />It's a powerful insight. It explains a lot about what's going on right now, and I do believe we are in a historic time, where big changes lie ahead. I don't know what things are going to look like in five years, but I do believe they are going to look much different. And, according to the wave theory, we should be coming out of this downturn in 3-5 years, for a decade or two, anyway. <br /><br />So, what does all this mean? Well, for starters, despite what you hear a lot of people say, now is not a great time to buy real estate or make any long term investments in the stock market. Wait a few years and take another look.<br /><br />Free advice, that last part. Other than that, I highly recommend going to the Elliott Wave Institute website and checking it out. If the theory is wrong and I'm completely fooled, I'll have a good laugh about it down the road.Wonderwoodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13118126631519254865noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34499700.post-58317598401222163572009-02-03T18:36:00.000-08:002009-02-03T19:57:07.124-08:00Same Old StoryIt just keeps getting better, doesn't it? Banks buying jets with the bailout money. Wall Street brokerage houses paying out billions in bonuses while their customers wonder how they're ever going to retire with what's left of their investment portfolio. Governors selling Senate seats to the highest bidder.<br /><br />And now the leaders we've elected can't seem to find anyone to help them run the country, because none of the people they want to appoint have paid their fucking taxes. Our elected leaders go on a rampage about how irresponsible the Wall Street millionaires are, meanwhile all their friends are holding out on Uncle Sam.<br /><br />Give. Me. A. Break.<br /><br />Aren't there any good guys left? Isn't there anyone who knows how to do the right thing? You know, just normal everyday things, like not humping your intern and paying your fucking taxes. Isn't there anyone we can look to and see hope? <br /><br />Take the bible thumpers out. Liars and hypocrites. Don't look to the corporate executive ranks, they're thieves and cheaters. Athletes? Thugs and wannabes. The Arts? Come on.<br /><br />I don't care if someone smoked a joint at some point in their life. In fact, it's probably better if they have. But show me some common sense, huh? If you're a politician, you live in a high profile world. Take care of your business, okay? Do the right thing and pay your taxes.<br /><br />Okay, that's enough. I need to watch a funny movie or something. Reality pisses me off.Wonderwoodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13118126631519254865noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34499700.post-72493399064422184522009-01-08T07:17:00.000-08:002009-01-08T11:13:22.848-08:00Life LessonsThe holidays were different for me this year. It was the first holiday season sans both parents. I felt a bit like an orphan. <br /><br />It was my mother's wish that we spread their ashes on St. Simon's Island, where they spent their most enjoyable years. My sister and I rented a big beach house, and she came down with her family and I went up solo, as I'm not married and don't have any kids. We did the deal on Christmas day, and it was a special time, and I kind of felt like it was my mom pulling us together as a family. It was a very smooth thing, nothing at all like Lonesome Dove, when Tommy Lee Jones had to carry Robert Duvall's body back to Texas and it like to killed him. No, this was an enjoyable task and gave us a great opportunity to celebrate their lives and include them in our Christmas.<br /><br />I'm getting to the life lessons now, I had to set the scene first. <br /><br />My sister has two daughters from her first marriage and my brother-in-law has a daughter and son from his first marriage. They have no children together. So, I have three nieces and one nephew, and I love them all. <br /><br />The girls are pretty easy to get along with, but the nephew is 14, about to be 15, and he's pretty full of himself. He wants to be like his daddy so bad, it just can't happen fast enough. That's not a bad thing, his daddy is a good man, but the boy ain't there yet. In the last year he's grown about 6 inches, and now he's 6' and several inches taller than me. He's going to be a big dude, he's not done growing by a long shot. But regardless of how big he gets, I still have to keep him in line. As the Cool Uncle, it's my job.<br /><br />So during the holidays we were all hanging out in the beach house. The kitchen and the family room were basically one large room, with one wall nothing but floor to ceiling glass, looking out at the ocean. Very cool. <br /><br />I start joking around with my sister's oldest daugther, Hayley, about one of her friends. Now, I'm twenty years older than Hayley and her buddies, but they're in their early twenties and full grown. I mention to her that maybe her friend Sarah is in the market for a sugar daddy, and I'd be happy to volunteer for the job. I said, tell her I almost meet the age requirement, and as far as the money, I'm still working on it. But we can go ahead and get a head start, if she wants. <br /><br />Everybody laughed and my sister got a little tweaked. She looked at me like I'm a pervert, and said I'm not old enough to be a sugar daddy and don't have the money anyway, and I said hell yeah I am and don't sweat the dough, we'll manage. Joe, my bro-in-law, jumps in on my side, and the banter went on for a couple of minutes and it was over with a few laughs. <br /><br />Later that night after dinner my nephew made some comment, I don't remember exactly, and I said something back and then he said, "Come on, old man."<br /><br />"Who you calling old man, punk?" I said.<br /><br />"I'm calling you old man. You said so yourself," he said, smirking a little.<br /><br />Whoa. My sister looked at me, sort of grinning. Joe was looking at the TV, I don't know if he heard or not, but he was smiling about something.<br /><br />I looked at the boy and shook my head. "Jared," I said, "walk with me."<br /><br />I put my arm around his shoulders - I had to reach up a little - and led him out to the deck.<br /><br />He tensed up, like he knew something was coming but not sure what.<br /><br />"Jared, that was a dick move, just now. You know it in your heart, but you don't know why, exactly. I'm going to tell you why. I'm going to do you a favor and drop a little adult wisdom on your verdant punk ass."<br /><br />We were leaning on the railing, the light from inside falling on the dunes and the beach beyond. We couldn't see the waves but we could hear the persistent dull crashing. I looked at the boy, who looked a little confused.<br /><br />"Jared, you want to be liked by people, right?" It was a rhetorical question and I didn't wait for an answer. "Of course you do, it's natural. One way to be liked by people is to not be a dick.<br /><br />"Now, earlier, I kind of made myself the butt of my own joke. That's called self-deprecating humor, and most people find it to be an endearing quality. People generally like other people who don't take themselves too seriously, and don't mind providing laughter at their own expense once in a while. It's a humble gesture, and people generally appreciate humility in others.<br /><br />"Now, by taking my own humility and turning it against me, you've violated an unspoken law. Only a dick or an asshole does it, see?" I squeezed his shoulder for emphasis, and he grimaced a little, as I squeezed it kind of hard, right up there at the base of the neck.<br /><br />"Not only that, you were just a witness to the joke, not a participant. That joke was between me and Hayley and Robin and Joe, so that's a second violation, compounding the seriousness of the initial dick move. You still with me?"<br /><br />He nodded, looking into the darkness, kind of forlorn.<br /><br />"So, ultimately, if you want to be a smartass, and by the way, don't believe the people who say no one likes a smartass, cause plenty of people love a good a smartass, but if you're going to be a smartass, you have to learn the etiquette, and I've just given you your first lesson. If you don't want people to think you're a dick, don't act like one. You dig?"<br /><br />He nodded again. "Thanks, Uncle John, you're the coolest. I'll try not to be a dick anymore."<br /><br />"You're learning, boy. I think you've got a chance."Wonderwoodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13118126631519254865noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34499700.post-63389858041770700232008-11-30T13:54:00.000-08:002008-11-30T15:58:46.937-08:00Principles and PrognosticatorsTricky times we're living in right now. Uncertainty seems to be the prevailing forecast. Volatility in the financial markets has reached, in recent weeks, record levels. Most of the popular TV pundits don't have a clue what's going to happen next, and opinions range from "we've seen the worst of it and we're turning the corner" to "this is only the beginning of a long, painful shift in the way the world functions" to "prepare for the Apocolypse". <br /><br />Current events affecting my livelihood, particularly the deteriorating economy and slumping stock market, sparked an interest in doing some research on these subjects, including the history of the markets. This research lead me to the websites of some current market historians, as well as some theorists who also happen to be prognosticators of future market events.<br /><br />One such group of theorists, followers of the <a href="http://www.elliottwave.com/">Elliott Wave Principle</a>, I found particularly interesting. The Elliott Wave prinicple provides the foundation for the study of <a href="http://www.socionomics.net/index.aspx">Socionomics</a>. <br /><br />In a nutshell, the theory proposes that man is born with some endogenous mechanism that dictates the collective social mood, and these moods rise and fall according to a particular pattern (waves), and that these waves have a particular form. They propose that the stock market is the most immediate measure of current social mood, and you can trace the wave patterns in the Dow Jones Industrials, the S&P, the gold markets, etc. All of the markets will follow this form.<br /><br />R.N. Elliott is credited with forming the primary postulates of this theory. In the 1930's, Elliott discovered that the stock market prices trend and reverse in recognizable patterns. Furthermore, these patterns are fractals (he didn't use the word "fractal", but he proposed the concept). A fractal is, to quote Wikipedia, generally "a rough or fragmented geometric shape that can be split into parts, each of which is (at least approximately) a reduced-size copy of the whole,"[1] a property called self-similarity. The term was coined by Benoît Mandelbrot in 1975 and was derived from the Latin fractus meaning "broken" or "fractured." A mathematical fractal is based on an equation that undergoes iteration. <br /><br />Fractals are the basis for a lot of mathematical mumbo jumbo that I won't go into here, but as it pertains to the stock market, it is significant.<br /><br />If the theory holds true, it means that you can look at the well-documented history of the stock markets, going back to the 1700's, and trace these patterns right up until today. Which also means you can see what the pattern calls for next. <br /><br />I don't know about anyone else, but if I know what's going to happen next, I'm in a hell of a lot better position to prepare for it.<br /><br />But the theory is only a theory, right? I mean, no one can really predict what's going to happen next. No one has a crystal ball. <br /><br />But these guys have been right about a lot of stuff. I mean, a lot of stuff.<br /><br />Five years ago, Robert Prechter, the world's leading expert on Elliott Wave theory, made some predictions. Actually, he made 100 predictions, and if these interest you, you can find them on the <a href="http://www.elliottwave.com/">Elliott Wave Principle</a> website. Here are just a few:<br /><br /><strong>Finance:</strong><br /><br />Stock markets around the world will continue to fall. Ultimately, the averages will drop more than 90 percent.<br /><br />Real estate values will fall more than they did in the 1930s and 1940s.<br /><br />Debt packages made of mortgage-backed bonds, auto loans and credit card debt will become viewed as unworthy investments.<br /><br />The dollar will lose its place as the world’s reserve currency. Either gold, a currency backed by gold (such as the Islamic dinar), or the Chinese yuan will take its place.<br /><br />The total amount of credit outstanding worldwide will decline substantially.<br /><br />The Federal Reserve chairman will be labeled a fool who is greatly responsible for the collapse.<br /><br />Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will shut down.<br /><br />“The rich” will be vilified, and their property will be increasingly taxed and seized.<br /><br /><strong>The Economy:</strong><br /><br />The trend toward economic contraction that began in 2001 will continue to develop into a depression.<br /><br />The unemployment rate in the U.S. and in most countries around the world will rise and eventually exceed 25 percent.<br /><br />A record number of manufacturing companies in the U.S. will fail.<br /><br /><strong>Politics:</strong><br /><br />The occupation of Iraq by the U.S. will progress from a quagmire to a financial, political and public relations disaster.<br /><br />The Third World War, which began on 9/11/01, will escalate.<br /><br />Separatist movements will gain momentum. Many will successfully establish new geopolitical entities.<br /><br />Fears about technology will lead to restrictions on its development.<br /><br />Politics will become far more polarized, splintered and radical.<br /><br /><strong>Other Social Trends:</strong><br /><br />Religion will become increasingly popular. Its advocates will become increasingly passionate. Religious intolerance will increase.<br /><br />Science will be turned to manipulative or malevolent purposes.<br /><br />New brutal sports will be introduced and gain popularity.<br /><br />The U.S. space program will be shut down.<br /><br />Hemlines will fall, and bright colors will go out of style.<br /><br />Cults and other escapist communities will be established.<br /><br />These are just a few of the predictions Prechter made in 2003. Some of them are pretty radical, but many are proving prophetic. It makes for very interesting reading.<br /><br />The idea of a pre-determined collective social mood seems pretty farfetched on the surface, but if you take a closer look, maybe not so hard to believe. <br /><br />I'm not saying I buy it without question, but I'm reading a couple of books on the Elliot Wave Principle and paying attention to what's happening.<br /><br />Maybe I'll make some predictions of my own. I'm a prognosticator in training.Wonderwoodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13118126631519254865noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34499700.post-48031508359761394102008-10-28T16:41:00.000-07:002008-10-28T17:24:55.465-07:00Writing FictionFinally, I'm writing again. I've not written any fiction, or rather, I've not worked on anything serious, in about four months. I've fooled around with some stories, but ever since I decided to shelve the recent WIP, I've been spending a lot of time doing research. The new story has some major plot elements that I knew nothing useful about. I've been researching how our Port Authority works, and I'm starting to look into Asian business culture, particularly South Korea. I don't have to become an expert on these matters, but I have to know enough to write with realistic detail where it's needed for the scenes and to give verisimilitude to the plot.<br /><br />I've had plenty of time in the last four months to plot and scheme and develop characters. Seven hours of highway time once a week was great for playing around with ideas, working them through, scribbling them onto a notepad as I barreled down the highway at 80 mph. <br /><br />Now that I'm actually writing, starting out on a new story that will hopefully be around 80K words when finished, it feels like sitting down to dinner with an old friend that you haven't seen in too long. <br /><br />How you doing, Blank Page? Let's reacquaint ourselves. <br /><br />I don't know yet if I'm starting at the beginning of the story or not, I'm not worried about that right now. I've got a destination in mind this time, and I'll enjoy the journey. I'm sure it will take me to some unexpected places, and I'm looking forward to it. I love the journey. My last WIP didn't wind up anyplace exciting, but the journey was worthwhile and certainly I developed my skills. Writing in first person POV was an interesting excercise, though I'm writing this one in close third. Third gives the opportunity to develop tension in different ways. I think it will work better for this story. It will have a thriller edge to it, though it's still a quest-type mystery.<br /><br />I read one of Jason Pinter's novels recently, <em>The Stolen</em>, his third one, I believe. I haven't read the first two, so I don't know if they're written in the same style, but he alternates between first person POV for his MC, and third person for other people. It was effective in that it allowed him to develop tension by letting the reader in on what the other characters were doing while keeping the MC in the dark. I've thought about doing this, but I was afraid it might be viewed by editors as a cheap way to create tension, kind of cheating, in a sense. Shows what I know. Pinter got away with it, so I guess it's a legitimate strategy.<br /><br />If you want some exciting news, check out Stuart Neville's blog here <a href="http://conduitnovel.blogspot.com/">Conduit</a>. What an exciting adventure Stuart is living right now. It gives hope to all of us.<br /><br /><br /><br /><em></em><em></em>Wonderwoodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13118126631519254865noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34499700.post-36938504366030600562008-10-02T18:18:00.000-07:002008-10-02T19:00:07.904-07:00ChangesIt's been a while since my last post, and many things have changed. <br /><br />My father passed away two weeks ago.<br /><br />I'm not going to tell a sad story, and this isn't a tribute post. I said the eulogy and that was hard enough; I'm not up for a tribute at this time. There are better ways to honor him.<br /><br />In addition to the grief that everyone feels when they lose a loved one, there's also a strange feeling when both parents are gone. Kind of a detached feeling, like the last thread to your childhood is finally severed. I mean, I've been an adult for at least five or six years now, but when my parents were alive, I was still someone's kid. And there was some security in that. But now, the last vestige of that childhood security is vanished and it feels weird.<br /><br />I have some big decisions to make. Normally, when I make big decisions I consult my father. I didn't always heed his advice. In fact, many times I didn't. Funny thing though; the older I grew, the more often I found myself agreeing with him. But, either way, I asked and listened to what he said. Now, that voice, the voice that was usually right whether I wanted it to be or not, is no longer audible. I have to seek to hear it in other ways. <br /><br />And I think I do hear his voice. Not, like, in a crazy way. But for instance, tonight I was thinking about a situation I'm dealing with and some decisions I need to make, and I've been working through this for a week or so. Out of the blue, an idea popped into my head. Do it this way. <br /><br />It was a different angle, perfectly feasible, and relatively simple. I liked it. And then I thought about what my dad would say if I presented the idea to him. He'd probably say, "Why didn't you see that angle from the git go?" <br /><br />I could hear him say it.<br /><br />So, I'll check it out tomorrow, work it through and see if it makes as much sense in the morning as it makes right now. <br /><br />I guess I'll get used to it, after a while. The detached feeling, that is, not the voices.<br /><br />So now life goes on and I know how to honor both my parents. One day at a time.Wonderwoodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13118126631519254865noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34499700.post-82677702399682665302008-08-24T14:55:00.000-07:002008-08-24T16:49:44.629-07:00HomeHome. <br /><br />Home never felt so good. Eight days away doesn’t seem like much, from a big picture perspective. In the forest of my life, it is but a few leaves. (Sorry, I waxed poetic. It was an accident.) The thing is, the time I spend in north Georgia just doesn’t allow any time to decompress. That’s what makes time drag the way it does. <br /><br />I get up, wait for my father to get up, and I get him squared away. Coffee, whisky, cigarettes. A glass of Ensure. I go to work, and the job is stressful, by nature. Then I go back to my dad’s house and hang with him. It is hard to see him in this condition. It takes an emotional toll.<br /><br />Toward the end of the week, I found myself getting cranky, and snappy with people. I managed to catch myself before I did any damage, but still, having to watch my tongue is tiring in itself. <br /><br />What made it more stressful than usual this week: there was a friggin typhoon sitting on top of my neighborhood, and all I could do was watch weather.com and try not to lose my mind. Has a tree smashed into my house? They call this place Wonderwood for a reason. The oaks are ancient and massive. And with the Intracoastal only three hundred yards away, I was also sweating a flood. It’s never flooded here in twenty years since the neighborhood was built, but has there ever been this kind of storm just sitting there for three days dumping rain at a rate of three inches an hour during some stretches?<br /><br />I was getting updates from people here, but it’s different, someone telling you your home is intact, rather than seeing it for yourself. It was additional negative energy, and by Friday, I struggled to keep a foul mood at bay. It took an effort. <br /><br />I sit here and read this and it sounds like I’m whining. Maybe I am. Hopefully, this will be the extent of my whining. The point is, I’m glad to be home. My bed. My couch. My TV. My remote. My home.Wonderwoodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13118126631519254865noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34499700.post-45878139429862114412008-08-11T17:14:00.000-07:002008-08-11T19:39:09.374-07:00Go For the GoldThe Olympics are cool. <br /><br />I know there's been doping and scoring scandals in past Olympics, and the atmosphere reeks of bullshit politics. There's already been one random act of violence - coincidentally, committed upon two fellow citizens of mine. There are overhyped athletes, and the broadcast talent becomes annoying, if it didn't start out that way. I'm aware of the peripheral faults and vagaries, but still, the Olympics are cool.<br /><br />I get to feeling patriotic, and I want the Americans to win every single contest. USA, baby! Let's beat the Frogs and the Canucks and the Japs. Damn right, win all the gold. Let the rest of 'em fight it out for silver and bronze. <br /><br />For the most part, I feel that way. I'll admit, I didn't pull for the American skier in the last Winter Olympics, what's his name, Bodie Miller. He was pretty much a jackass, I thought, so I hoped he would lose and then cussed him for losing. The boy had no gratitude and no humility that I could see in the few interview clips I saw of him. I like a little humility in my favorite athletes. Spontaneous celebration with your teammates is cool, but don't overdo it. And don't act like a jackass when you don't win.<br /><br />I like Michael Phelps, but he's about to get on my nerves this year. His celebrations seem orchestrated, with the removal of the upper half of his swimsuit, the shirt part. His teammates don't strip down when they finish their leg of the relay, why should he? Preparing for the cameras, I do believe. He should know you don't have to be a poser if you're The Man.<br /><br />But my favorite thing about the Olympics is, they bring back memories from various points in my life. Giving away my age, I was about to turn 10 when Mark Spitz set all the records in Munich. Everyone was talking about it. I remember who I was friends with, who my girlfriend was, what Little League baseball team I played on, and we went to Jekyll Island for summer vacation that year.<br /><br />Then there was Nadia Comaneci in '76. I thought she was hot, and she was my age. Those muscular legs served as infinite inspiration for a youngster dripping with hormones.<br /><br />One of my favorite Olympics was in 1984, the Los Angeles Olympics. I was 21 and going into my senior year at Georgia. In other words, I knew everything and I was 10 feet tall and bullet proof. <br /><br />My father took me on a trip to California and Nevada that August, while the Olypics were going on in El Ay. One night in Carmel, after we'd gone out for a nice steak dinner, we were back in the hotel room chilling out, he with a map spread out on the bed, plotting our travel strategy for the next day. We were headed for Lake Tahoe. Mary Lou Retton was on TV doing her thing, and looking fine doing it. I thought she was the bomb, with that tight little hard body, the perfect teeth and the fire in her eyes. I was plotting my own strategy for ditching my dad, taking the rental car and driving down to El Ay to try to catch her eye. <br /><br />Right.<br /><br />So I didn't do that, but we did go to Lake Tahoe the next morning. We spent two days there. I met a lady from Sacremento while playing Black Jack and drinking Wild Turkey. She was 44. We charmed each other and went off to have some privacy and drove her car to a little ramshackle hotel at the end of what was The Strip back in those days. The Playland Motor Inn. I forgot to cash in my chips before we left the casino, but fortunately the sleepy headed manager was cool enough to let me pay him with a casino chip from the High Sierra. Later, when I tried to sneak into the hotel room back at the casino, about 5:00 a.m., my father cracked one eye and said, "You better sleep fast, we're pulling out at 7:00."<br /><br />I like to go back to those days and relive some of my favorite moments, and the Olympics reminds me to do so. I hope that sometime down the line, I'll look back on these Olympics with some fond memories. There is plenty of negative to be found right now, take your pick. The economy, inflation. Gas prices. The state of the war in Irag, or Afghanistan. I'm sure I'll remember these things and associate them with the 2008 Summer Olympics, but they won't be the things I remember most. This year we've got the new little American gymnast, Shawn Johnson, giving the young boys fits and poised to bring home some serious gold. And I'll remember the time I spent with my father, the girl I'm seeing, who my friends are and what we're doing. Incredibly, I'm still friends with 3 of the guys I was friends with in 1972. <br /><br />Yeah, the Olympics are cool. Go America.Wonderwoodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13118126631519254865noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34499700.post-70062192336304355042008-07-31T16:47:00.000-07:002008-07-31T18:25:56.993-07:00The Good and The BadI met with Janet Reid on Saturday. Face to face with The Agent. It was... anti-climactic. At first glance.<br /><br />I was sitting in the reception area after lunch with a few minutes to spare before our meeting, observing the other attendees, absorbing the experience. She came over and asked if I was ready. Sure, ready as I'm gonna be.<br /><br />We went into a private room with a long table and a sky of natural light. She dropped my pages on the table in front of me and said, "Try not to faint."<br /><br />I picked them up to take a look. Her blue markings were all over the place. She started talking.<br /><br />She said my opening sentences were too long. She said start with the second paragraph. She said it needs tightening.<br /><br />Okay. I can take that.<br /><br />She pointed out a couple of other problems, such as a lack of a compelling reason for a particular action. Okay, I can see that. Sort of. I thought a reader would take something for granted, but I can see how the action could be given a clear motive. Fair enough.<br /><br />It seemed to me that she thought she was being more harsh than what I thought she was being. Maybe she's used to wannabe writers who crumble under the critical words of a pro. Maybe she made some early presumptions about me based on meeting me earlier in the day. Maybe I'm dense and couldn't read between the lines. I don't know.<br /><br />She also said, "You're not a bad writer. No, I take that back. You're a good writer."<br /><br />Okay, thanks for that.<br /><br />"You've got all the elements of a good opening." Followed by, "It still needs work."<br /><br />I put the manuscript down and absorbed the comments, and we talked some more. We talked about writing and writers, and the value of many of the agent and editor blogs. She likes Evil Editor's blog. Who doesn't?<br /><br />She asked me questions. Where do I live? What do I do for a living? We talked regular people stuff. I shared some personal info, and so did she.<br /><br />Before I knew it, my thirty minutes were up.<br /><br />It was upon reflection that I found the real value in the meeting. I took a few days to digest her comments and read her marks and comments on the manuscript.<br /><br />It does need tightening. How could I have missed the things she pointed out? They seem so obvious to me now.<br /><br />I played with the first two paragraphs tonight. I shortened the sentences. I moved some things around. What do you know? It's better.<br /><br />I've also been giving a lot of thought to the story itself. It's no secret to anyone who's read my occassional whinings on here, I've struggled with the outcome. I don't like the plot as it stands. The main character doesn't have enough at stake. He isn't conflicted enough for my liking.<br /><br />I've decided to start over, and I feel liberated by the decision. I'll keep this story and possibly use some characters and scenes, but I'm making big changes.<br /><br />The main character is going to be darker, with more inner turmoil. He'll be more tragic. And he'll have personal stakes in the outcome. I thought I could write that subtext into the plot I started with, and maybe I still could, but I'm not sold on the story as the way I'm telling it, so I'm going to create a story I can get my teeth into.<br /><br />While I noodle the story, I'm researching police and investigative procedures much more deeply than I have to this point. It's fun. Writing cop scenes will be fun.<br /><br />Back to the conference. A great experience. I met some nice people. I learned a lot.<br /><br />Shorter sentences. Got it.Wonderwoodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13118126631519254865noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34499700.post-3731513472060487812008-07-25T18:10:00.001-07:002008-07-25T19:10:31.657-07:00New ExperienceToday I attended my first writer's conference, and it was interesting. Lots of wannabes like me, all ages, from 12 to, I'm guessing, about 85. The first event I attended was a panel discussion with agents and editors. Katharine Sands and Janet Reid (agents) and Benjamin LeRoy (editor for Bleak House books). They started out by telling us a little bit about themselves and what they do, and then opened it up to questions.<br /><br />I kept my mouth shut. As a wise man once said, better to keep my mouth shut and be thought a fool, than open my mouth and prove it. So I just listened.<br /><br />I thought most of the questions were pretty good, fairly educated questions. I didn't glean a great deal of new information, mostly because I read agent and editor blogs frequently and have seen most of these questions answered in those forums, but it was still interesting to listen to the answers and see the person(s) providing the answers.<br /><br />Janet Reid is very energetic and witty, and obviously knowledgeable. She's not shy about making her point, but not harsh about it, either.<br /><br />Katharine Sands comes across as sophisticated and also knowledgeable. Her style is a little more reserved than Janet's, but she gets her point across.<br /><br />Benjamin LeRoy is younger than I expected and if I were to describe him in one word: serious.<br /><br />They all share a common trait. They are passionate about their work. It is obvious that they love what they do. They love books and writers, and they love being involved in the process of making a story as good as it can be and getting it into print and making it available to the public.<br /><br />The next session I attended was a workshop on character development, hosted by Claire Matturro, author of four published novels: Bone Valley, Wildcat Wine, Skinny Dipping, and Sweetheart Deal. She's a very nice lady and a talented writer, and the workshop was interesting and offered some excellent insights on character development.<br /><br />Overall, it was an interesting day. And tomorrow, I attend another session hosted by Janet Reid called Going Commando. It deals with the question: do you need a literary agent. I'm looking forward to it.<br /><br />And then tomorrow afternoon I have my manuscript consultation with, you probably guessed it already, Janet Reid. Strangely, I'm not as nervous as I was earlier in the week. I expect some criticism. I can look at the 25 pages I sent in and see where I need to trim some fat. I expect to be told I need to whittle down chapter two, eliminate some redundacy and get rid of some sections of dialogue that can be dealt with later in the story. I'm going in with an open mind, and hopefully I won't get hammered too hard. Whatever happens, it will be an experience I won't forget, I'm sure of that.<br /><br />More to come...Wonderwoodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13118126631519254865noreply@blogger.com2